MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Julian is almost stationary or barely moving over the Philippine Sea, the weather bureau said in a press conference shortly before noontime on Friday, September 27.
Julian’s location remained unchanged from early Friday morning, still at 525 kilometers east of Itbayat, Batanes, as of 10 am.
It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 70 km/h, based on the 11 am bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
But Julian is projected to intensify over the next few days. It is now seen to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday evening or Saturday morning, September 28; a severe tropical storm by Sunday morning, September 29; and a typhoon by Sunday evening.
Julian appears unlikely to make landfall, as it is still expected to “follow a looping path over the waters east of Batanes and Cagayan in the next five days.” Even without making landfall, however, it will affect Northern Luzon.
PAGASA released this updated rainfall forecast for Julian at 11 am on Friday:
Friday noon, September 27, to Saturday noon, September 28
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Cagayan
Saturday noon, September 28, to Sunday noon, September 29
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes, Apayao, Ilocos Norte
Sunday noon, September 29, to Monday noon, September 30
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Batanes, Apayao, Ilocos Norte
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region
Floods and landslides are possible.
With Julian also set to bring strong winds, the weather bureau still expects to raise Signal No. 1 for parts of Cagayan Valley on Friday.
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Julian could be Signal No. 2 or 3.
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Tropical Depression Julian may also bring strong to gale-force gusts” to these areas:
Saturday, September 28
- Aurora, northern part of Quezon
Sunday, September 29
- Aurora, Calabarzon, Romblon, Marinduque, Bicol, Aklan, northern part of Antique
Meanwhile, PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Chris Perez explained that any southwest monsoon episode while Julian is inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility is likely to be “minimal,” since the habagat is already winding down. The southwest monsoon season is usually from June to September.
That means the situation in Southern Luzon may not be as bad as when Typhoon Carina (Gaemi) enhanced the southwest monsoon in July. Metro Manila had experienced serious floods back then.
But Perez emphasized the importance of regularly monitoring forecasts and still preparing for potential hazards.
“Puwede pang magkaroon ng pagbabago sa forecast scenario natin, kaya po nabanggit ko rin ‘yung updating natin through our tropical cyclone bulletin at weather advisory…. Hindi po tayo dapat maging kampante…. Iba pa rin po kung maghahanda tayo for the worst-case scenario. Mangyari man po o hindi, at least handa ‘yung mga kababayan natin,” he said.
(Our forecast scenario can still change, so as I mentioned, PAGASA issues updates through our tropical cyclone bulletins and weather advisories. We shouldn’t be complacent. It’s still best to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Whether the worst-case scenario happens or not, at least our fellow Filipinos are prepared.)
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For coastal waters in the next 24 hours, PAGASA warned of rough seas in the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands as well as the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
Moderate seas are also seen in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024, and also the sixth tropical cyclone for September alone. – Rappler.com