MANILA, Philippines – Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (Trami) lingered over the coastal waters of Ilocos Sur late Thursday afternoon, October 24, a few hours after exiting the landmass of Luzon via the province.
In a briefing past 5 pm on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Kristine was located over the coastal waters of Santa Lucia, Ilocos Sur, slowly moving west, or below 10 km/h. It was previously moving at 15 km/h.
The severe tropical storm continues to have maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h and gustiness of up to 145 km/h.
It is expected to move over the West Philippine Sea — where it might intensify — and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon, October 25.
But PAGASA reiterated that there is “a developing forecast situation” showing Kristine could be “looping” over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday, October 27, and Monday, October 28, and moving east or east northwest “toward the general direction of the PAR region.”
This scenario “heavily depends on the behavior” of one of the two low pressure areas (LPAs) outside PAR, which is seen to develop into a tropical depression within 24 hours. This LPA was located 2,465 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao on Thursday afternoon.
Kristine had made landfall in Divilacan, Isabela, at 12:30 am on Thursday, then crossed Ifugao, Mountain Province, and Ilocos Sur. Before hitting land, it already triggered moderate to torrential rain that caused massive floods, with Bicol among the hardest-hit regions.
PAGASA’s latest rainfall advisory, issued at 5 pm on Thursday, shows the severe tropical storm will no longer be causing torrential rain in any part of the country. But moderate to intense rain may persist in the next two days.
Thursday afternoon, October 24, to Friday afternoon, October 25
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Pangasinan, Zambales, La Union, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Metro Manila, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Antique, Aklan, Negros Occidental, Palawan including Calamian Islands
Friday afternoon, October 25, to Saturday afternoon, October 26
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, La Union
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): rest of Ilocos Region, Bataan, Antique, Aklan, Negros Occidental
Meanwhile, fewer areas are under tropical cyclone wind signals, also as of 2 pm.
Signal No. 3
Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property
- Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Pangasinan
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Isabela
- Quirino
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- Abra
- Ifugao
- Mountain Province
- Benguet
- Ilocos Norte
- Aurora
- Nueva Ecija
- Tarlac
- Zambales
- Bataan
- Pampanga
- Bulacan
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- Batanes
- Metro Manila
- Rizal
- Batangas
- Laguna
- Cavite
- Quezon
- Occidental Mindoro
- Oriental Mindoro
- Marinduque
- Romblon
- northern part of mainland Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, San Vicente, Dumaran, Roxas) including Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands, and Kalayaan Islands
- Camarines Norte
- Camarines Sur
- Catanduanes
- Albay
- Sorsogon
- Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island
- Aklan
- Capiz
- Antique including Caluya Islands
- Iloilo
- Bantayan Islands
- Northern Samar
- northern portion of Samar (Calbayog City, Almagro, Tagapul-an, Santo Niño)
The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Kristine, the northeasterly windflow, and southwesterly windflow” are bringing strong to gale-force gusts to the following:
Thursday, October 24
- rest of the Philippines outside wind signal areas
Friday, October 25
- Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Soccsksargen, Davao Region
Saturday, October 26
- Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Zamboanga del Norte, Siquijor, Bohol, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands
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In addition, there is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges “with peak heights of around 1 to 2 meters above normal tide levels” in Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Zambales in the next 48 hours.
For coastal waters in the next 24 hours, PAGASA said up to very rough or high seas are expected in the seaboards of Zambales and Pangasinan (waves up to 7 meters high); remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region, seaboards of Cagayan Valley and Lubang Islands, as well as western seaboards of Bataan and Batangas (waves up to 6 meters high); western seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Calamian Islands (waves up to 5.5 meters high); and western seaboard of northern Palawan including Kalayaan Islands as well as seaboard of northern Aurora (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.
Up to rough seas are seen in the southern seaboard of Quezon, remaining seaboard of Mimaropa, and western and southern seaboards of Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental (waves up to 4 meters high); remaining seaboard of Aurora, seaboards of Camarines Norte and Catanduanes, as well as northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur (waves up to 3.5 meters high); and remaining seaboards of Luzon and the Visayas (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
Up to moderate seas will persist in the remaining seaboards of the country (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.
Kristine is the country’s 11th tropical cyclone for 2024 and the first for October. – Rappler.com